This weekend’s race at Texas Motor Speedway is the second classic intermediate track race of the year for the NASCAR Cup Series.

As the bread-and-butter track type, we should have a good idea of who is fast and who isn’t based off practice times, plus a large chunk of data at similar tracks over the past year.

With 267 laps scheduled, we’ll definitely want 1-2 dominators per lineup, with the occasional sprinkle of three dominators in a multi-entry portfolio, as Texas has produced 27 caution flags over the two races in the Next Gen era. That said, I don’t expect to see more than 11-12 cautions given that the 2022 race had a bunch of tire failures that won’t be repeatable, with a median number of incidents even lower.

That’s how I plan on attacking this weekend’s DFS slate.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Texas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

It all starts with Kyle Larson ($11,000) in both cash games and tournaments.

Larson qualified on pole, posted some of the fastest practice-lap averages, and has been the most dominant driver on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen era. You absolutely must play him in cash games and use him in a solid chunk of your tournament lineups as well.

Kyle Busch ($9000) is the next obvious cash-game play, as he crashed in practice forcing him to miss qualifying. That relegates him to a 35th-place starting spot, and we’d expect him to have a car that competes in the top half of the field, with upside for much more, especially given how good he was at the other 1.5-mile track this year, Las Vegas.

At the cheaper end, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6100) stands out as a fantastic cash-game play thanks to his upside at 1.5-mile tracks. Action Network’s PJ Walsh wrote about Stenhouse’s penchant for finding top-10 finishes at these tracks, and his practice times were in the middle of the pack. That gives him plenty of upside from a 31st-place starting spot.

Texas DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

Tyler Reddick ($10,000) should be at the top of everyone’s tournament list as the second-most likely dominator behind Larson. Should Larson falter, Reddick is poised to pounce given his 2022 win at Texas, his near-victorious performance at Las Vegas (coming up just short of passing Larson on the last lap), and his solid practice times (best 10- and 20-lap averages).

Reddick’s Toyota stablemates Ty Gibbs ($8500) and Bubba Wallace ($8700) should also be in the dominator conversation, albeit as more contrarian options. Both had top-six times in 15-lap average, and Wallace was the most dominant car at Texas last year.

However, it’s important to note that as contrarian options, it’s unlikely both dominate. Thus, I’d recommend choosing some settings in the FantasyLabs optimizer to either produce negative correlation between the two, or set them as a group and use no more than one of the two in a good chunk of your portfolio.

Moving down the price list, I like Daniel Suarez ($7200) and Josh Berry ($6800) as tournament picks. People will be all over Stenhouse (as they should be), but that could draw some attention away from Berry, who unloaded fast off the trailer and posted top-half-of-the-field lap times.

Suarez, meanwhile, had the third-best, 15-lap average in practice, and Texas has been a strong track for him. He’s placed inside the top-13 in average running position in both races at Texas in the Next Gen era, and he has shown strong at similar 1.5-mile tracks and the two-mile track of Michigan, which also comps well to Texas.

Texas DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

I was all about Zane Smith ($5500) at Las Vegas, and unfortunately he hit the wall on the fourth lap and ruined his day.

But I’m back on the Zane train at Texas.

The 1.5-mile intermediate track has always been solid for him in the Truck Series, and he scored a 10th-place finish at Texas’ most comparable track, Charlotte, in the Cup Series just last year.

The rookie also showed speed in practice, placing ahead of Josh Berry in 15-lap average in practice. By starting seven places ahead of Berry, it’s clear Berry will draw more usage. But Smith has similar top-10 upside to Berry this weekend, and if he pulls off that result, he’s sure to be in the optimal lineup at just $5500.