The 2024 national elections will pit fossil-fueled interests against the clean energy economy. However, the politicians shouldn’t do that to voters. To that end, electric vehicles will take center stage. The technology has come a long way over the last decade and could eventually overtake the internal combustion engine.

Undoubtedly, voters will be hit with misinformation. EVs have many selling points, but one of the most critical is that they are cleaner than traditional cars. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the lifecycle emissions tied to EVs are much lower. The primary driver—no pun intended—is the underlying fuel used to charge the battery. The dirtier the fuel, the longer the lifecycle.

“At the beginning of their lives, battery-electric vehicles, or BEVs, are emissions-intensive, thanks in large part to their battery-manufacturing needs,” says Corey Cantor, senior associate, electric vehicles, BloombergNEF. “But once on the road, internal combustion engine vehicles quickly speed past BEVS – in terms of CO2 emissions, at least – because of the heavy emissions that gas-guzzling cars spew.”

BloombergNEF looked at the United States, China, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan. On average, the lifecycle CO2 emissions of a medium-sized battery-electric vehicle manufactured today and driven 155,000 miles would be 27%- 71% less than those of an equivalent car with an internal combustion engine.

Drivers in the United States hit the “breakeven point” at 25,500 miles—roughly two years into ownership. In China, that number is 73,300 miles. Those figures will improve for two reasons: First, the grids are becoming greener internationally, and second, the battery technologies are improving.

Moreover, the rare earths used in them are recyclable, which will reduce lifecycle emissions. Meanwhile, the Inflation Reduction Act enacted two years ago encourages the on-shoring of battery technology—a process that could reduce emissions tied to global transport, BNEF says.

Lithium-ion batteries use five critical raw materials: lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite. They also use aluminum and copper. The good news is that the quality of the reprocessed minerals can be as good as “virgin” or extracted supplies. However, mining and recycling will coexist for a while.

“We can recover up to 95% of all the materials in the lithium battery and return them to new batteries or the economy. This is a net environmental benefit relative to mining these materials,” Tim Johnston, co-founder and executive chair of Li-Cycle Holding Corp., told me. In comparison, fossil fuels are used just once.

How Do Oil Companies Respond?

Electric vehicles will be a significant market. The European Union is phasing out the internal combustion engine by 2040, while this country wants half of all vehicles to run on electricity by 2030. BloombergNEF estimates that carmakers internationally will sell 42 million EVs by 2030 or 44% of sales—notably more significant than the 10.5 million EVs sold in 2022. The Edison Electric Institute projects 26.4 million EVs in this country in 2030.

Ryan Cornell of Harvard University agrees with BNEF’s findings. He says a traditional car will emit about 69 metric tons of CO2 over a lifetime, or 150,000 miles. However, an EV powered 100% by coal will emit 66 metric tons of CO2 over the same period. Given that nearly every grid in America hosts several fuel sources, that’s a conservative figure.

The batteries are more efficient than the internal combustion engine, meaning that more energy comes out for each unit that goes in. The Union of Concerned Scientists found that EVs create the same level of heat-trapping emissions as a car that gets 88 miles per gallon—which doesn’t exist.

How are oil companies reacting to this phenomenon? BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie, and BP have predicted that oil’s relevance in the transport sector will wane as EV interest picks up. In the most extreme case, BP says global oil demand will decline by 80% by 2050. Its “business-as-usual” case falls by 10% during this time. Otherwise, expect a 50% drop.

Oil companies are broadly diversifying their business plans and getting more into green energy. They invest about 2.7% of their total capital spending in sustainable enterprises. That is about $20 billion annually—not enough, says the International Energy Agency, which maintains it should be 50% of the total spend.

“We’re finding that the major oil companies have taken a look over the fence, and they realize there is an existential crisis coming: EV adoption will make the internal combustion engine a thing of the past,” Kyle Pynn, director of transportation electrification for Burns & McDonnell, told me.

That doesn’t mean that the “resistance” to cultural and economic change won’t try to throw up roadblocks—much of which we will hear as the election season gets into full swing. The bottom line is that EVs are cleaner and have a brighter future than traditional cars.